Flagler County secondary school enrollment may exceed capacity by 2029

Palm Coast Observer
Schools

Secondary school enrollment in Flagler Schools may exceed district capacity by 2029, according to a study by the Davis Demographics firm.

Davis Demographics presented a resident student forecast to the School Board at its Aug. 15 information workshop.

Among other key items in its districtwide analysis:

The resident student population in Flagler Schools is expected to see an increase of nearly 1,000 students, or 7% of the district’s current resident student population, by 2027.
All grade levels are expected to continue growing throughout the 10-year forecast period.
High school and middle school enrollment may exceed district capacity by 2029, while elementary school enrollment may exceed capacity by 2030.

The forecast for resident student enrollment in 2032-33 is 16,086, less than 2,500 more than the current enrollment of 13,638, a number that does not include voluntary pre-kindergarten.

Indian Trails Middle School is currently at 94.3% capacity, with most of its resident students enrolled in the school. By contrast, Buddy Taylor Middle School is at 76.8% capacity with 412 resident students attending other schools.

Flagler Palm Coast High School is at 99.5% capacity with the addition of 527 transfers. Matanzas High School is at 88.7% capacity, but an expansion will add 366 student stations in two years.

The board approved the district’s five-year capital plan at its evening board meeting. The plan calls for a new high school supporting 2,600 student stations to be built starting with an initial expense of $2 million in 2024-25.

The five-year plan could be adjusted next year. At the workshop, Dave Freeman, the district’s chief of operations, said the district could build a smaller high school that could expand “wing by wing.”