Secondary school enrollment in Flagler Schools may exceed district capacity by 2029, according to a study by the Davis Demographics firm.
Davis Demographics presented a resident student forecast to the School Board at its Aug. 15 information workshop.
Among other key items in its districtwide analysis:
- The resident student population in Flagler Schools is expected to see an increase of nearly 1,000 students, or 7% of the district’s current resident student population, by 2027.
- All grade levels are expected to continue growing throughout the 10-year forecast period.
- High school and middle school enrollment may exceed district capacity by 2029, while elementary school enrollment may exceed capacity by 2030.
The forecast for resident student enrollment in 2032-33 is 16,086, less than 2,500 more than the current enrollment of 13,638, a number that does not include voluntary pre-kindergarten.
Indian Trails Middle School is currently at 94.3% capacity, with most of its resident students enrolled in the school. By contrast, Buddy Taylor Middle School is at 76.8% capacity with 412 resident students attending other schools.
Flagler Palm Coast High School is at 99.5% capacity with the addition of 527 transfers. Matanzas High School is at 88.7% capacity, but an expansion will add 366 student stations in two years.
The board approved the district’s five-year capital plan at its evening board meeting. The plan calls for a new high school supporting 2,600 student stations to be built starting with an initial expense of $2 million in 2024-25.
The five-year plan could be adjusted next year. At the workshop, Dave Freeman, the district’s chief of operations, said the district could build a smaller high school that could expand “wing by wing.”