Odds are against hurricane in Flagler

Palm Coast Observer
Opinion

June 1 marked the opening of the 2011 hurricane season. The season will last until the end of November. In 2004, Florida was hit by four separate storms. But many don’t realize that Northeast Florida, which includes Palm Coast and Flagler County, is not considered among the areas most vulnerable to storms.

I first wrote about this fact Sept. 29, 2006, but at that time, GoToby.com was less than one month old. Only five people visited the website that day (I was probably four of them) so I assume most of you missed it. For those who did, here it is again:

Where is America most vulnerable to a hurricane strike? The International Hurricane Research Center — the official center that works alongside the National Hurricane Center — created a list of the nation’s 10 most vulnerable areas.

To create the list, the IHRC looked at 12 criteria, with historic hurricane frequency, storm intensity and levee/dike failure were primary determinants. Other considerations include factors such as storm surge and freshwater flooding potential, coastal erosion trends and island breaching history.

Socioeconomic factors involved populations at risk, evacuation distances and routes. Of the 10 areas that made the list, Florida netted four spots, though the greatest risk is New Orleans. The rankings are 1. New Orleans, 2. Lake Okeechobee, 3. Florida Keys, 4. Coastal Mississippi, 5. Miami/Fort Lauderdale, 6. Houston/Galveston, Texas, 7. Cape Hatteras, N.C., 8. Eastern Long Island, N.Y., 9. Wilmington, N.C., 10. Tampa/St. Petersburg.

For a historical perspective, a U.S. Census Bureau report states that in 1950, the Weather Bureau first began naming hurricanes. At that time, 10.2 million people lived in the coastal portions of states stretching from North Carolina to Texas. By 2007, that population grew to about 35 million.

Florida accounted for 15 million of the increase. The population density of Florida’s coastal areas is 354 per square mile.

The name of the first Atlantic storm of 2011 will be Emily. The second Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean storm will be named Franklin. There were 19 named storms during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season; 12 were hurricanes.

Disasters may occur regardless of where you live. Fires, tornados and intense lightning storms are not uncommon. Although the odds are not high for a major hurricane in Northeast Florida, nobody should be lax. Prepare, beware, but don’t be scared.